Barbara Sims, a radiology technician, studies the Calypso screen as the linear accelerator begins to move around patient John Donohue. The machine uses a GPS-like system to locate his prostate tumor exactly, enabling real-time tracking of its movement during treatment. (Michael Bryant/Philadelphia Inquirer)

Scores of health care workers are edging toward retirement and California is not producing enough graduates to replace them, according to the study, "Closing the Health Workforce Gap in California: The Education Imperative."

Meanwhile, the state's population is rapidly growing and becoming older, stressing the need for more health care services.

"An aging work force and existing undersupply of workers led us to the study's conclusion that in over three-fourths of the health care occupations, there are significant shortfalls," said Edward O'Neil, an author of the study and professor at the University of California at San Francisco.

"Some are so significant that in the near future they are likely to endanger some dimension of every Californian's health."

The study was sponsored by the Campaign for College Opportunity, and funded by Kaiser Permanente and the California Wellness Foundation.

It focused on the "allied health" sector, which includes jobs such as dental hygienists, radiology technicians, respiratory therapists and pharmacy technicians. The study also acknowledged the ongoing shortage of nurses in the state.

Demand for allied health workers in California is expected to grow at a rapid pace within the next decade -- at 26 percent -- while overall employment is expected to grow 16 percent, the study said.

In the Northern San Joaquin Valley, the need for well-trained health care workers is "more acute than other areas," said George Boodrookas, dean of community and economic development at Modesto Junior College.

'Patient care will really suffer'

Boodrakas said the new Kaiser Modesto Medical Center in north Modesto and expansions at Memorial Medical Center have greatly increased the need for nurses and other health care personnel in recent years.

"Hospitals across the state are facing shortages," said Marilyn Chow, vice president of patient care services at Kaiser Permanente. "If we continue to have shortages, patient care will really suffer."

MJC has ramped up the number of slots available for its licensed vocational nursing programs and medical assisting program in the past seven years, Boodrakas said.

Still, that falls below the demand for the spots. Nearly all community colleges across the state have hit capacity for such programs, the study said, because of the high costs of health education programs, a lack of clinical placements and faculty shortages.

"On the whole, the finding is that the community colleges are not offering enough slots or enough variety to fill a very diverse work force," said Abdi Soltani, executive director of the Campaign for College Opportunity.

The programs also suffer from high attrition rates.

In the Central Valley, about 25 percent of students enrolled in nursing programs don't complete the training, said Pilar De La Cruz-Reyes, executive director of the San Joaquin Valley Nursing Education Consortium, a group that seeks funding for training in the region.

"They don't finish for a variety of reasons, such as grades or financial situations. They leave after they realize they have to work 24-7, on weekends or holidays, or because of the pressures. It is not an easy program," De La Cruz-Reyes said.

Soltani of the Campaign for College Opportunity said the solution lies in launching statewide initiatives that would expand the capacity of health care programs at community colleges and universities.

Opportunity for high-wage jobs

Schools also need to focus more on student success to help lower the attrition rates. "We need to help them get through the program, not just into the program," Soltani said.

The state should look at the health care sector as an opportunity to develop a thriving industry with high-paying jobs, just as it would encourage growth in sectors such as biomedicine, O'Neil said.

"At a time when we're attempting to get high-tech, livable-wage jobs, we have an industry that's already distributed throughout the entire state," O'Neil said.